Interview with Ali Tash from our cooperation partner TransnetBW

Interview

APG: Hello Mr. Tash! We are delighted that you have taken the time for this interview. Let's start with a brief introduction: What is the main project you are currently working on at TransnetBW?

Tash: Good morning and thank you for the invitation. I currently hold the position of Product Owner of TransnetBW’s energy system model. This means that I am responsible for defining the product vision of the energy system model, determining priorities, and supervising the development team. We aim to continuously improve the energy system model so that it can always adequately reflect the growing complexity of the actual energy system.

APG: Why do transmission system operators need to be able to map the entire energy system in all its complexity?

Tash: The decarbonization of the energy system will be achieved, among other things, by electrifying the consumption sectors. This requires the rapid integration of renewable energies and the development of new flexibilities. However, the paramount objective is to keep supply and demand in balance. This can only be achieved with a suitable grid infrastructure. As TSO, we can only develop our grids adequately and in line with the demand if we know how the entire energy system is developing.

APG: How does the energy system model used by TransnetBW and APG work?

Tash: The ESM is a model of the entire energy system and takes into account all energy sources and consumption sectors as well as their emissions. This means that the effects of sector coupling along the entire value chain can be mapped in the model. The decision variables include capacities and operating modalities of plants as well as all energy flows, storage facilities, losses, and emissions throughout the evaluation period and in all European countries. By means of an optimization problem, these decision variables are then determined in such a way that the total system costs, i.e. investment and operating costs, as well as costs for imported fuels, are minimized while complying with several constraints.

The central constraints include temporal load balancing (i.e. production has to equal consumption), emission reduction targets, various technical restrictions, and the political regulatory framework. The ESM can be used to simulate consistent overall system scenarios and examine the effects of external political or regulatory measures and technological developments. The results of the ESM are available for all modeled regions in high temporal resolution for the selected reference years on the way toward climate neutrality. In this context, the explicit identification of the need for electricity transport corridors between the modeled regions is of particular importance for TSOs.

APG: What do you like most about your job?  

Tash: The technical and IT challenges of modeling the complex energy system. I am particularly interested in how closely the energy sectors are intertwined and how harmoniously they can develop to optimize the use of resources. We sometimes refer to this as the "dance of the sectors". I also like the opportunity to work with new partners, including cooperation with APG. I am very pleased to work with and learn from such competent colleagues. Due to similar challenges, such collaborations help both sides to discover and make efficient use of synergies, broaden perspectives, and improve performance.

APG: In your opinion, what is the biggest challenge when mapping real-life energy systems in models?

Tash: First and foremost, there is a trade-off between the level of granularity of the energy system in the model and the solvability of the optimization model. In principle, it is possible to map many details, but this significantly increases the complexity of the optimization problem and quickly reaches the limits of the solution methods. Another major challenge is the availability of data: sometimes there is a lack of data on certain aspects, and in other cases, data from different sources contradict each other. When defining scenarios, it occasionally happens that we as TSOs assess the long-term developments in certain sectors differently than the players who are active in these areas. Initiatives such as zusammEn2040, however, offer the possibility to cope with such asymmetric information through direct dialog.   Furthermore, methods for modeling such large systems require certain assumptions. For example, it is assumed that the energy market is a perfect market without any market power, information asymmetry, or non-economic motivation of the players. In reality, however, many events can lead to market failures and cause unpredictable or economically irrational developments in the real-life energy system. Even the political framework with all its decisions cannot be predicted with certainty. These are aspects that are very difficult to map with our tools.

APG: What is the greatest added value in this project and what are the key insights gained so far?

Tash: I see the greatest added value in the fact that within very little time we can assess the viability of the transmission grid in a large number of different energy system scenarios by means of a sequence of different tools, ranging from the overall energy system model to specific grid models. To date, analyses, especially national grid development plans, have been based on a limited number of energy scenarios to determine grid development requirements. This was due to the challenge and the high effort involved in creating consistent scenarios that not only accurately reflect the effects of sector coupling, but are also politically acceptable. With the ESM, however, it does not take much time to create numerous consistent energy system scenarios that also take into account the effects of sector coupling. Subsequently, these effects can also be reflected and analyzed in our grid models. Of course, regarding grid development, there are also so-called "no-regret" measures. This means that certain expansion requirements must be met anyway, regardless of the different trajectories in the development of the energy system. It is more difficult to identify measures that depend on the specific future of our energy system. This is precisely where our ESM can facilitate robust but also cost-effective planning of grid development. In addition, the information gained from the simulations can be used to strengthen the scenarios for the national grid development plans.

APG: What is the cooperation with APG like and what advantages do you see in it?

Tash: APG and TransnetBW have joined forces to develop the energy system model even further. To date, we have already completed a joint code base. The methodical cooperation on the model code facilitates the efficient integration of national know-how and thus significantly increases the quality and informative value of the European model.  Allow me to explain this in more detail using a specific example. While one cooperation partner implements new functionalities in the model, the other transmission system operator develops extensive evaluations and visualizations. The resulting enhancements can then be used by both partners. By working together on such an important planning tool as the ESM, European cohesion is strengthened and the added value for the partners is maximized.

APG: Why are European collaborations like this particularly important in energy system modeling?

Tash: Europe's energy system should be seen as a single entity, not only because European countries are connected by electricity transmission grids and gas pipeline networks, but also because we are striving for a common economy with a lot of trade in Europe. We must pool our ambitions; the energy transition can only be achieved through joint efforts. European cooperation is therefore particularly important to us and we are open to new partners.

APG: Thank you very much for the interview!

Additional links:

Energy System 2050 | TransnetBW GmbH